Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, M. Martínez-Beneito, Joan Ballester, Marc Marí-Dell'Olmo
{"title":"用于小区域暴露-滞后-反应流行病学建模的空间贝叶斯分布式滞后非线性模型(SB-DLNM)","authors":"Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, M. Martínez-Beneito, Joan Ballester, Marc Marí-Dell'Olmo","doi":"10.1093/ije/dyae061","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Background Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are the reference framework for modelling lagged non-linear associations. They are usually used in large-scale multi-location studies. Attempts to study these associations in small areas either did not include the lagged non-linear effects, did not allow for geographically-varying risks or downscaled risks from larger spatial units through socioeconomic and physical meta-predictors when the estimation of the risks was not feasible due to low statistical power. Methods Here we proposed spatial Bayesian DLNMs (SB-DLNMs) as a new framework for the estimation of reliable small-area lagged non-linear associations, and demonstrated the methodology for the case study of the temperature-mortality relationship in the 73 neighbourhoods of the city of Barcelona. We generalized location-independent DLNMs to the Bayesian framework (B-DLNMs), and extended them to SB-DLNMs by incorporating spatial models in a single-stage approach that accounts for the spatial dependence between risks. Results The results of the case study highlighted the benefits of incorporating the spatial component for small-area analysis. Estimates obtained from independent B-DLNMs were unstable and unreliable, particularly in neighbourhoods with very low numbers of deaths. SB-DLNMs addressed these instabilities by incorporating spatial dependencies, resulting in more plausible and coherent estimates and revealing hidden spatial patterns. In addition, the Bayesian framework enriches the range of estimates and tests that can be used in both large- and small-area studies. Conclusions SB-DLNMs account for spatial structures in the risk associations across small areas. By modelling spatial differences, SB-DLNMs facilitate the direct estimation of non-linear exposure-response lagged associations at the small-area level, even in areas with as few as 19 deaths. The manuscript includes an illustrative code to reproduce the results, and to facilitate the implementation of other case studies by other researchers.","PeriodicalId":14147,"journal":{"name":"International journal of epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Spatial Bayesian distributed lag non-linear models (SB-DLNM) for small-area exposure-lag-response epidemiological modelling\",\"authors\":\"Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, M. Martínez-Beneito, Joan Ballester, Marc Marí-Dell'Olmo\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/ije/dyae061\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract Background Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are the reference framework for modelling lagged non-linear associations. They are usually used in large-scale multi-location studies. Attempts to study these associations in small areas either did not include the lagged non-linear effects, did not allow for geographically-varying risks or downscaled risks from larger spatial units through socioeconomic and physical meta-predictors when the estimation of the risks was not feasible due to low statistical power. Methods Here we proposed spatial Bayesian DLNMs (SB-DLNMs) as a new framework for the estimation of reliable small-area lagged non-linear associations, and demonstrated the methodology for the case study of the temperature-mortality relationship in the 73 neighbourhoods of the city of Barcelona. We generalized location-independent DLNMs to the Bayesian framework (B-DLNMs), and extended them to SB-DLNMs by incorporating spatial models in a single-stage approach that accounts for the spatial dependence between risks. Results The results of the case study highlighted the benefits of incorporating the spatial component for small-area analysis. Estimates obtained from independent B-DLNMs were unstable and unreliable, particularly in neighbourhoods with very low numbers of deaths. SB-DLNMs addressed these instabilities by incorporating spatial dependencies, resulting in more plausible and coherent estimates and revealing hidden spatial patterns. In addition, the Bayesian framework enriches the range of estimates and tests that can be used in both large- and small-area studies. Conclusions SB-DLNMs account for spatial structures in the risk associations across small areas. By modelling spatial differences, SB-DLNMs facilitate the direct estimation of non-linear exposure-response lagged associations at the small-area level, even in areas with as few as 19 deaths. 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Spatial Bayesian distributed lag non-linear models (SB-DLNM) for small-area exposure-lag-response epidemiological modelling
Abstract Background Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are the reference framework for modelling lagged non-linear associations. They are usually used in large-scale multi-location studies. Attempts to study these associations in small areas either did not include the lagged non-linear effects, did not allow for geographically-varying risks or downscaled risks from larger spatial units through socioeconomic and physical meta-predictors when the estimation of the risks was not feasible due to low statistical power. Methods Here we proposed spatial Bayesian DLNMs (SB-DLNMs) as a new framework for the estimation of reliable small-area lagged non-linear associations, and demonstrated the methodology for the case study of the temperature-mortality relationship in the 73 neighbourhoods of the city of Barcelona. We generalized location-independent DLNMs to the Bayesian framework (B-DLNMs), and extended them to SB-DLNMs by incorporating spatial models in a single-stage approach that accounts for the spatial dependence between risks. Results The results of the case study highlighted the benefits of incorporating the spatial component for small-area analysis. Estimates obtained from independent B-DLNMs were unstable and unreliable, particularly in neighbourhoods with very low numbers of deaths. SB-DLNMs addressed these instabilities by incorporating spatial dependencies, resulting in more plausible and coherent estimates and revealing hidden spatial patterns. In addition, the Bayesian framework enriches the range of estimates and tests that can be used in both large- and small-area studies. Conclusions SB-DLNMs account for spatial structures in the risk associations across small areas. By modelling spatial differences, SB-DLNMs facilitate the direct estimation of non-linear exposure-response lagged associations at the small-area level, even in areas with as few as 19 deaths. The manuscript includes an illustrative code to reproduce the results, and to facilitate the implementation of other case studies by other researchers.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Epidemiology is a vital resource for individuals seeking to stay updated on the latest advancements and emerging trends in the field of epidemiology worldwide.
The journal fosters communication among researchers, educators, and practitioners involved in the study, teaching, and application of epidemiology pertaining to both communicable and non-communicable diseases. It also includes research on health services and medical care.
Furthermore, the journal presents new methodologies in epidemiology and statistics, catering to professionals working in social and preventive medicine. Published six times a year, the International Journal of Epidemiology provides a comprehensive platform for the analysis of data.
Overall, this journal is an indispensable tool for staying informed and connected within the dynamic realm of epidemiology.