Assessing the outcome of drug therapy in adult patients with epilepsy who have experienced seizure recurrence after remission

Background. Remission in general sense means disappearance of signs and symptoms of the disease. The risk of recurrence of seizures is usually evaluated only in terms of the risk of a second unprovoked seizure after the first one or the risk of recurrence of seizures after discontinuation of therapy. There are no studies that assess the probability of achieving a second remission in patients with recurrent seizures.Aim. To develop a tool for assessing the probability of favorable and unfavorable treatment outcomes after recurrent seizures in adult patients with different forms of epilepsy.Materials and methods. We analyzed data from 215 patients with recurrent seizures after achieving remission, followed up for 12 or more months, and analyzed disease outcomes.Results and conclusion. At the end of the study, repeat remission was observed in 67 patients, improvement in 48, and no effect in 100. Patients with remission and improvement were combined into a “favorable outcome” group (n = 115), while patients with no effect from therapy formed an “unfavorable outcome” group (n = 100).Patients with an unfavorable outcome were statistically significantly more likely to have factors such as longer disease duration, coexisting serious somatic diseases, structural etiology of epilepsy, bilateral tonic-clonic seizures with focal onset, focal forms of epilepsy, daily seizures, epileptogenic changes on neuroimaging, and regional epileptiform activity on EEG (p <0.05). In turn, patients with a favorable outcome were statistically significantly more likely to have factors such as genetic etiology of epilepsy, generalized tonic-clonic seizures, absences, myoclonic seizures, generalized forms of epilepsy, no pathology on neuroimaging, diffuse epileptiform activity on electroencephalogram, and no pathology on electroencephalogram (p <0.05).Based on the obtained data using the results of constructing contingency tables, a scale for assessing the probability of achieving repeat remission in patients with recurrent epileptic seizures was developed, consisting of 9 sections. To assess the effectiveness of the model, ROC analysis was performed, confirming statistically significant sensitivity and specificity of the obtained scale.Further research is needed to develop more accurate predictors of epilepsy outcomes to understand the peculiarities of the disease pathogenesis.