重新审视尼日利亚可再生能源消费与经济增长之间的关系:VECM 方法

Rebecca Folake Bank-Ola, Olamide M. Adediwura, Ifeoluwa Alao-Owunna, Victoria Christian Udofia
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摘要

研究调查了可再生能源消费对经济增长的影响,并分析了 1990 年至 2022 年这两个变量之间的动态关系。研究使用了 1990 年至 2022 年期间的年度二手数据。实际国内生产总值、可再生能源消费(占最终能源消费总量的百分比)、资本形成总额(占国内生产总值的百分比)、劳动力、总量和贸易(占国内生产总值的百分比)等数据来自世界发展指标。研究采用约翰森协整检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM)来检验可再生能源消费对经济增长和其他解释变量的影响,并采用成对格兰杰因果检验来检验这两个变量之间的因果关系。实证研究表明,可再生能源消费与经济增长之间存在长期关系。证据显示,两个变量之间不存在单向或双向因果关系。短期来看,可再生能源消费对经济增长有显著的积极影响。这表明,可再生能源可能会刺激经济增长,尤其是可再生能源对经济增长的短期影响要大于资本形成。从研究结果中得出的主要政策含义表明,有必要对可再生能源技术和基础设施进行投资,这有助于提高可再生能源的可用性和可负担性,改善尼日利亚可再生能源部门的劳动力发展。
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Revisiting the Nexus between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Nigeria: The VECM Approach
The research investigates the effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth as well as analyzing the dynamic relationship between both variables from 1990 to 2022. Annual secondary data covering the period between 1990 and 2022 were used in the study. Data on real gross domestic product, renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), gross capital formation (% of GDP), labor force, total and trade (% of GDP) were sourced from World Development Indicator. The study applies Johansen co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth and other explanatory variables as well as using pairwise granger causality test to examine the causal relationship between both variables. The empirical evidence revealed long-term relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth. Evidence shows that there is no causality either unidirectional or bi-directional between both variables. In short run, renewable energy consumption revealed a significant positive impact on economic growth. This shows that renewable energy may stimulate economic growth, particularly as it has a greater short-term impact on economic growth than capital formation. The key policy implication drawn from the results indicate the need for investment in renewable energy technologies and infrastructure, which can help to increase the availability and affordability of renewable energy, improve workforce development in Nigeria renewable energy sector.
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