加强微观模拟模型的参数校准:研究改进方法

IF 3.5 2区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI:10.1016/j.simpat.2024.102950
Yacong Gao , Chenjing Zhou , Jian Rong , Xia Zhang , Yi Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

校准微观交通仿真模型是仿真应用的先决条件。本研究提出了三种新方法来提高校准模型的准确性和可解释性。建议的方法包括选择校准参数、完善模型参数系统和优化校准结果。第一种方法是将单点平均值扩展为多点分布。选择延迟的累积分布曲线作为校准参数。第二种方法将参数系统分为全局参数和局部参数。全局参数利用 NGSIM 测量数据进行校准,局部参数通过智能算法进行校准。第三种方法基于遗传算法结果提出了参数聚类递归方法,并选择信息熵作为分析指标。为了评估所提出的优化方法的有效性,本研究以 NGSIM 轨迹数据作为案例。基于三种优化方法设计了八种仿真方案,并利用 VISSIM 平台进行了仿真实验。结果表明,多点分布校准和参数值优化方法的精度明显高于默认方法。此外,同时校准全局和局部参数的优化方法更符合实际驾驶特性。这项研究为改进交通仿真技术的实际应用提供了理论基础,对交通规划和管理具有重要意义。
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Enhancing parameter calibration for micro-simulation models: Investigating improvement methods

Calibrating microscopic traffic simulation models is a prerequisite for simulation applications. This study proposes three novel methods to improve the accuracy and interpretability of the calibration model. The proposed approach involves selecting the calibration parameter, refining the model parameter system, and optimizing the calibration results. The first method expands the single-point mean into a multi-point distribution. The cumulative distribution curve of delay was selected as the calibration parameter. The second method divides the parameter system into global and local parameters. Global parameters were calibrated using NGSIM measured data, and local parameters were calibrated through intelligent algorithms. The third method proposes a methodology of parameter clustering recursion based on the genetic algorithm results, with information entropy selected as the analysis index. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed optimization methods, this study used NGSIM trajectory data as a case study. Eight simulation schemes based on the three optimization methods were designed, and simulation experiments were conducted using the VISSIM platform. The results show that the accuracy of the multi-point distribution calibration and parameter value optimization method is significantly higher than the default method. Additionally, the optimization method with calibration of both global and local parameters was more consistent with actual driving characteristics. This study provides a theoretical foundation for improving the practical application of traffic simulation technology, which has significant implications for transportation planning and management.

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来源期刊
Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory
Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 工程技术-计算机:跨学科应用
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
4.80%
发文量
142
审稿时长
21 days
期刊介绍: The journal Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory provides a forum for original, high-quality papers dealing with any aspect of systems simulation and modelling. The journal aims at being a reference and a powerful tool to all those professionally active and/or interested in the methods and applications of simulation. Submitted papers will be peer reviewed and must significantly contribute to modelling and simulation in general or use modelling and simulation in application areas. Paper submission is solicited on: • theoretical aspects of modelling and simulation including formal modelling, model-checking, random number generators, sensitivity analysis, variance reduction techniques, experimental design, meta-modelling, methods and algorithms for validation and verification, selection and comparison procedures etc.; • methodology and application of modelling and simulation in any area, including computer systems, networks, real-time and embedded systems, mobile and intelligent agents, manufacturing and transportation systems, management, engineering, biomedical engineering, economics, ecology and environment, education, transaction handling, etc.; • simulation languages and environments including those, specific to distributed computing, grid computing, high performance computers or computer networks, etc.; • distributed and real-time simulation, simulation interoperability; • tools for high performance computing simulation, including dedicated architectures and parallel computing.
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