利用物理编码深度学习的分布式水文建模:通用框架及其在亚马逊河流域的应用

Chao Wang, Shijie Jiang, Yi Zheng, Feng Han, Rohini Kumar, O. Rakovec, Siqi Li
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摘要

与传统的分布式水文模型(DHMs)相比,深度学习(DL)模型显示出更高的模拟精度,但其主要局限性在于不透明性和缺乏基本物理机制。追求 DL 与 DHM 之间的协同效应是一个引人入胜的研究领域,但明确的路线图仍遥遥无期。在本研究中,开发了一个新颖的框架,该框架无缝集成了以神经网络(NN)编码的基于过程的水文模型、用于从流域属性映射空间分布和物理意义参数的附加 NN,以及代表不充分理解的过程的基于 NN 的替代模型。多源观测数据被用作训练数据,该框架是完全可微分的,可通过反向传播快速调整参数。基于该框架建立了亚马逊流域(6×106 平方公里)的混合 DL 模型,并将全球尺度 DHM HydroPy 作为其物理骨干进行编码。通过同时使用流场观测数据和重力恢复与气候实验卫星数据进行训练,混合模型在动态和分布式模拟流场和总蓄水量时的纳什-萨特克利夫效率中值分别为 0.83 和 0.77,比原始 HydroPy 模型分别高出 41% 和 35%。用替代 NN 取代 HydroPy 中的原始 Penman-Monteith 公式,可得出更合理的潜在蒸散量(PET)估算值,并揭示了这一巨大盆地中潜在蒸散量的空间模式。对用于参数化的 NN 进行了解释,以确定控制关键参数空间变化的因素。总之,这项研究为大数据时代的分布式水文建模提供了可行的技术路线图。
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Distributed Hydrological Modeling With Physics‐Encoded Deep Learning: A General Framework and Its Application in the Amazon
While deep learning (DL) models exhibit superior simulation accuracy over traditional distributed hydrological models (DHMs), their main limitations lie in opacity and the absence of underlying physical mechanisms. The pursuit of synergies between DL and DHMs is an engaging research domain, yet a definitive roadmap remains elusive. In this study, a novel framework that seamlessly integrates a process‐based hydrological model encoded as a neural network (NN), an additional NN for mapping spatially distributed and physically meaningful parameters from watershed attributes, and NN‐based replacement models representing inadequately understood processes is developed. Multi‐source observations are used as training data, and the framework is fully differentiable, enabling fast parameter tuning by backpropagation. A hybrid DL model of the Amazon Basin (∼6 × 106 km2) was established based on the framework, and HydroPy, a global‐scale DHM, was encoded as its physical backbone. Trained simultaneously with streamflow observations and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite data, the hybrid model yielded median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.83 and 0.77 for dynamic and distributed simulations of streamflow and total water storage, respectively, 41% and 35% higher than those of the original HydroPy model. Replacing the original Penman‒Monteith formulation in HydroPy with a replacement NN produces more plausible potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates, and unravels the spatial pattern of PET in this giant basin. The NN used for parameterization was interpreted to identify the factors controlling the spatial variability in key parameters. Overall, this study lays out a feasible technical roadmap for distributed hydrological modeling in the big data era.
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