第 25 个太阳活动周期中刚度为 10 GV 的宇宙射线调制预测

IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI:10.1134/S0016793223601072
V. G. Yanke, A. V. Belov, R. T. Gushchina, P. G. Kobelev, L. A. Trefilova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要根据太阳活动参数的预测和作者开发的银河宇宙射线调制模型,我们预测了第25个太阳活动周期的宇宙射线变化。宇宙射线通量的预测是基于与太阳黑子数量(单参数模型)或一组太阳参数(主要是磁参数)(多参数模型)的相关性。对太阳黑子数量的预测是根据已公布的数据进行的;对其他太阳参数的预测是在研究中完成的。结果表明,在当前第 25 个太阳活动周期的三年中,宇宙射线的变化总体上与预测并不矛盾,并表明第 25 个太阳活动周期预计将比第 24 个太阳活动周期略为活跃。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Forecast of Modulation of Cosmic Rays with Rigidity of 10 GV in the 25th Solar Activity Cycle

Based on a forecast of solar activity parameters and the model developed by the authors for modulation of Galactic cosmic rays, we forecasted cosmic ray variations in the 25th solar activity cycle. The cosmic ray flux forecast is based on correlation with the number of sunspots (single-parameter model) or with a set of solar (mainly magnetic) parameters (multiparameter model). The forecast for the number of sunspots was taken from published data; the forecast for other solar parameters was done in the study. It is shown that variations in cosmic rays over three years of the current 25th cycle, in general, do not contradict the forecasts and indicate that the 25th solar activity cycle is expected to be slightly more active compared to the 24th.

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来源期刊
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Earth and Planetary Sciences-Space and Planetary Science
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
33.30%
发文量
65
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Geomagnetism and Aeronomy is a bimonthly periodical that covers the fields of interplanetary space; geoeffective solar events; the magnetosphere; the ionosphere; the upper and middle atmosphere; the action of solar variability and activity on atmospheric parameters and climate; the main magnetic field and its secular variations, excursion, and inversion; and other related topics.
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