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引用次数: 0
摘要
鱼类生长模型对渔业资源评估至关重要,通常使用鱼类的年龄长度数据进行估算。这些数据广泛采用长度分层年龄取样法(LSAS)收集,这是一种具有成本效益的两阶段反应选择取样法。这些数据可能包含年龄测量误差(ME)。我们提出了一种既考虑 LSAS 又考虑年龄测量误差的方法,以准确估计鱼类的生长情况。建议的方法对 LSAS 采用经验比例似然法,对年龄 ME 采用变量结构误差法。我们为参数估计提供了不确定性度量,并为模型验证提供了标准化残差。为了建立年龄分布模型,我们采用了与真实年龄分布的随机性相一致的延续比对数模型。我们还对年龄和身长分布采用了离散化方法,这大大提高了计算效率,并与实践中通常遇到的离散年龄和身长数据相一致。我们的模拟研究表明,忽略年龄 ME 会导致生长估计出现明显偏差,即使年龄 ME 较小但不可忽略。然而,无论年龄中位数的大小如何,我们的新方法都能表现出色,并能准确估计参数估计值的 SE。实际数据分析证明了所提出的模型验证方法的有效性。本文还提供了实现该方法的计算机代码。
Addressing age measurement errors in fish growth estimation from length-stratified samples.
Fish growth models are crucial for fisheries stock assessments and are commonly estimated using fish length-at-age data. This data is widely collected using length-stratified age sampling (LSAS), a cost-effective two-phase response-selective sampling method. The data may contain age measurement errors (MEs). We propose a methodology that accounts for both LSAS and age MEs to accurately estimate fish growth. The proposed methods use empirical proportion likelihood methodology for LSAS and the structural errors in variables methodology for age MEs. We provide a measure of uncertainty for parameter estimates and standardized residuals for model validation. To model the age distribution, we employ a continuation ratio-logit model that is consistent with the random nature of the true age distribution. We also apply a discretization approach for age and length distributions, which significantly improves computational efficiency and is consistent with the discrete age and length data typically encountered in practice. Our simulation study shows that neglecting age MEs can lead to significant bias in growth estimation, even with small but non-negligible age MEs. However, our new approach performs well regardless of the magnitude of age MEs and accurately estimates SEs of parameter estimators. Real data analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model validation device. Computer codes to implement the methodology are provided.
期刊介绍:
The International Biometric Society is an international society promoting the development and application of statistical and mathematical theory and methods in the biosciences, including agriculture, biomedical science and public health, ecology, environmental sciences, forestry, and allied disciplines. The Society welcomes as members statisticians, mathematicians, biological scientists, and others devoted to interdisciplinary efforts in advancing the collection and interpretation of information in the biosciences. The Society sponsors the biennial International Biometric Conference, held in sites throughout the world; through its National Groups and Regions, it also Society sponsors regional and local meetings.