Do people know how suicidal they will be? Understanding suicidal prospection.

Introduction: Little research has been done on how people mentally simulate future suicidal thoughts and urges, a process we term suicidal prospection.

Methods: Participants were 94 adults with recent suicidal thoughts. Participants completed a 42-day real-time monitoring study and then a follow-up survey 28 days later. Each night, participants provided predictions for the severity of their suicidal thoughts the next day and ratings of the severity of suicidal thoughts over the past day. We measured three aspects of suicidal prospection: predicted levels of desire to kill self, urge to kill self, and intent to kill self. We generated prediction errors by subtracting participants' predictions of the severity of their suicidal thoughts from their experienced severity.

Results: Participants tended to overestimate (although the average magnitude was small and the modal error was zero) the severity of their future suicidal thoughts. The best fitting models suggested that participants used both their current suicidal thinking and previous predictions of their suicidal thinking to generate predictions of their future suicidal thinking. Finally, the average severity of predicted future suicidal thoughts predicted the number of days participants thought about suicide during the follow-up period.

Conclusions: This study highlights prospection as a psychological process to better understand suicidal thoughts and behaviors.