A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Power of China-PAR Against Cardiovascular Disease.

Background and Purpose: To evaluate the predictive power of the China-PAR model for cardiovascular disease (CVD).Methods: Dominate databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform, Chinese Biomedical Literature Service System, and VIP self-built database, were searched from January 1, 2016 to February 22, 2022. The primary outcome included observed events and predicted events by China-PAR. Meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.3 software. Stroke, arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), male, and female were divided into subgroup analyses. Funnel plots were used to assess publication bias.Results: A total of nine studies, which included 221,918 participants, were analyzed. Meta-analysis showed the combined observed incidence of CVD was 3.97%, and the combined predicted incidence was 9.59% by China-PAR. There was no significant difference between the observed and the predicted events. Subgroup analysis showed there was no statistical significance between the observed and the predicted events for stroke or for ASCVD. The difference between the observed and the predicted events by China-PAR was not statistically significant in either males or females.Conclusions: China-PAR model has important public health significance to further improve the primary prevention strategy of CVD.