Toward a test of the “Law of Crime Concentration” in Japanese cities: a geographical crime analysis in Tokyo and Osaka

This brief report aims to reveal crime concentration at the district level in Tokyo and Osaka, Japan, two cities characterized by low crime rates. Eight types of property crimes that occurred between 2008 and 2017 in Tokyo and Osaka and had been aggregated by the census enumeration district were analyzed using the Gini coefficient based on the Poisson-Gamma method. The results indicated three patterns. First, crime concentration was identified. Second, the degree of concentration depended upon crime type. Commercial burglary was the most concentrated crime type, and theft from vehicle and theft from vending machine were the most dispersed. Third, crime concentration patterns either remained stable or became more concentrated over time. Additionally, while theft of bicycle was found to display stable concentration levels over time, the concentration level of purse snatching was fluid. On the basis of the results, this report discusses the possibility of establishing the “Law of Crime Concentration” (LCC) in two Japanese cities.