在股价预测问题中,我们是否能从新闻流的分类中获益?

Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI:10.1134/S1064562423701648
T. D. Kulikova, E. Yu. Kovtun, S. A. Budennyy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要 在公司股价预测任务中,机器学习的威力被广泛利用。要构建更准确的预测模型,必须结合历史股价和相关外部信息。与公司相关的财经新闻情绪就可以成为这种有价值的知识。不过,财经新闻有不同的主题,如宏观新闻、市场新闻或产品新闻。在市场研究中,采用这样的分类通常不在研究范围之内。在这项工作中,我们旨在填补这一空白,并探索在股价预测问题中捕捉新闻主题差异的效果。首先,我们用预先训练好的模型将财经新闻流分为 20 个预定义的主题。然后,我们获取情感并探索新闻组情感标记的主题。此外,我们还利用几种成熟的时间序列预测模型进行了实验,包括时序卷积网络(TCN)、D-线性、变换器和时序融合变换器(TFT)。在我们的研究成果中,与不做任何划分地考虑所有新闻情感的方法相比,利用来自不同主题组的信息有助于提高深度学习模型的性能。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Do we Benefit from the Categorization of the News Flow in the Stock Price Prediction Problem?

The power of machine learning is widely leveraged in the task of company stock price prediction. It is essential to incorporate historical stock prices and relevant external world information for constructing a more accurate predictive model. The sentiments of the financial news connected with the company can become such valuable knowledge. However, financial news has different topics, such as Macro, Markets, or Product news. The adoption of such categorization is usually out of scope in a market research. In this work, we aim to close this gap and explore the effect of capturing the news topic differentiation in the stock price prediction problem. Initially, we classify the financial news stream into 20 pre-defined topics with the pre-trained model. Then, we get sentiments and explore the topic of news group sentiment labeling. Moreover, we conduct the experiments with the several well-proved models for time series forecasting, including the Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), the D-Linear, the Transformer, and the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT). In the results of our research, utilizing the information from separate topic groups contributes to a better performance of deep learning models compared to the approach when we consider all news sentiments without any division.

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