Eight-year nationwide study of the bidirectional association between type 2 diabetes and depression in nearly 8 million German outpatients

Introduction Research linking type 2 diabetes and depression mostly relied on hospital-based diagnoses or prescription data, overlooking many outpatient diagnoses. We aimed to quantify the risks of depression in individuals newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, and type 2 diabetes in those newly diagnosed with depression, while exploring potential risk differences depending on age, sex, and follow-up time. Research design and methods We conducted a matched cohort study using German nationwide outpatient claims data from 2012 to 2022. Participants were individuals newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes (N=294 642) or depression (N=1 271 537) in 2015, matched in a 1:4 ratio to controls without these conditions by age, sex, and region. The bidirectional risk was evaluated over an 8-year period using mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for the Charlson Comorbidity Index, urbanicity, and area-level deprivation. Results New type 2 diabetes diagnosis was associated with higher depression risk over 8 years (N=54 561 with depression, HR=1.23, 99% CI=1.21 to 1.24). Similarly, depression diagnosis was linked to an increased type 2 diabetes risk (N=71 848 with type 2 diabetes, HR=1.15, 99% CI=1.14 to 1.17). The association between depression and type 2 diabetes was stronger in younger age groups, especially under 34 years. Findings held across sex-stratified analyses. Time stratification showed a more pronounced association between type 2 diabetes and depression risk during the earlier follow-up quarters, whereas the risk of developing type 2 diabetes after depression diagnosis remained constant throughout the follow-up period. Conclusions Our findings confirm a bidirectional link between type 2 diabetes and depression, particularly in younger individuals. As type 2 diabetes and depression are frequent, future research needs to study whether preventive approaches can reduce the risk of developing this comorbidity. No data are available. The data analyzed in this study are not publicly available due to the data protection regulations of the German Social Code Book (Fünftes Sozialgesetzbuch, SGB V).