Time to Operation and Mortality Risk in Elderly Patients with Intestinal Fistula: Not Too Early and Not Too Late.

Introduction: This study aimed to ascertain the risk factors contributing to in-patient mortality in elderly patients 65 years and older who were admitted emergently, diagnosed with intestinal fistula, and underwent surgery.

Materials and methods: Data were extracted from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) spanning the years 2005-2014. Multivariable logistic regression and a generalized additive model (GAM) were employed to investigate predictors of mortality. Continuous variables are presented as mean values with standard deviations (SD).

Results: The study encompassed 34,853 patients with a mean age of 77.7 years-56.5% were female and 79.4% were White. Patients were categorized into three groups based on the time elapsed between admission and surgery: less than two days (17,761), two to three days (8,407), and more than three days (4,233). Mortality rates were 2.7%, 6%, and 6.1% for patients who underwent surgery within two to three days, within two days, and after more than three days of admission, respectively. Notably, the group that operated more than three days from admission experienced nearly double the hospital length of stay (12 days, SD: 7.2) compared to the other two groups (6.3, SD: 6 and 6.1, SD: 4.8). Furthermore, the association between mortality and time to operation, as indicated by the GAM model, revealed a significant non-linear relationship after adjusting for age, gender, race, zip code, hospital location, and comorbidities (p<0.001).

Conclusion: Elderly patients diagnosed with intestinal fistula should undergo operative treatment as soon as possible, once they are resuscitated. Delaying the operation more than three days after admission substantially increases the risk of mortality.