Predicting patients with dementia most at risk of needing psychiatric in-patient or enhanced community care using routinely collected clinical data: retrospective multi-site cohort study.

Background: Dementia is a common and progressive condition whose prevalence is growing worldwide. It is challenging for healthcare systems to provide continuity in clinical services for all patients from diagnosis to death.

Aims: To test whether individuals who are most likely to need enhanced care later in the disease course can be identified at the point of diagnosis, thus allowing the targeted intervention.

Method: We used clinical information collected routinely in de-identified electronic patient records from two UK National Health Service (NHS) trusts to identify at diagnosis which individuals were at increased risk of needing enhanced care (psychiatric in-patient or intensive (crisis) community care).

Results: We examined the records of a total of 25 326 patients with dementia. A minority (16% in the Cambridgeshire trust and 2.4% in the London trust) needed enhanced care. Patients who needed enhanced care differed from those who did not in age, cognitive test scores and Health of the Nation Outcome Scale scores. Logistic regression discriminated risk, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of up to 0.78 after 1 year and 0.74 after 4 years. We were able to confirm the validity of the approach in two trusts that differed widely in the populations they serve.

Conclusions: It is possible to identify, at the time of diagnosis of dementia, individuals most likely to need enhanced care later in the disease course. This permits the development of targeted clinical interventions for this high-risk group.