Interspecific and intraspecific difference in egg size of two mackerel (Scomber spp.) species in relation to sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific: A new approach to species identification

Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus, Scombridae) and blue mackerel (Scomber australasicus) are two important fishery resources in the western North Pacific that spawn eggs during the same season. Although estimating the total egg production (TEP) is important for evaluating the spawning stock biomass of mackerel species, it is difficult to accurately identify formalin-preserved eggs collected during ichthyoplankton surveys. Hence, a new identification criterion that incorporates the effects of water temperature on egg size was developed in this study. The diameter of 37,304 mackerel eggs collected over 16 years (2006–2021) was measured, and frequency distributions of egg size across sea surface temperature (SST) ranges at 1°C interval were constructed. The frequency distributions were classified into two groups using a Gaussian mixture model; based on the results of DNA analysis, the small group was chub mackerel, while the large group was blue mackerel. The SST at the sampling stations and the mean egg size of both groups were negatively correlated. The new identification criterion, incorporating the relationship between SST and egg size, provided reasonable estimates of the TEP of the two mackerel species compared with the conventional criterion. The new species identification approach is applicable to other fish taxa in the western North Pacific.