New source model for the 1771 Meiwa tsunami along the southern Ryukyu Trench inferred from high-resolution tsunami calculation

The 1771 Meiwa tsunami which struck the southern Ryukyu Islands (Sakishima Islands) had greater than 22 m run-up height, leaving about 12,000 casualties in its wake. At many places, the tsunami inundation or lack of inundation is well recorded in historical documents. Several tsunami source models have been proposed for this event using historical records as constraints of tsunami calculations. Nevertheless, the source model remains under discussion. This study re-evaluated the tsunami wave source model of the 1771 Meiwa tsunami using high-resolution (10 m mesh) bathymetric and topographical data for tsunami calculation, the latest historical record dataset, and seismological knowledge. Results demonstrated that a tsunami earthquake along the southern Ryukyu Trench was the likely cause of the 1771 event. However, it is noteworthy that assumption of a large slip with 30 m is necessary for a shallow and narrow region (fault depth = 5 km, fault width = 30 km, Mw = 8.49) of the plate boundary in the Ryukyu Trench, which is far larger than previously thought. This requirement of very large initial water level change at the source might involve not only the fault rupture along the plate boundary but also deformation by splay faults, inelastic deformation of unconsolidated sediments near the trench axis, and/or giant submarine landslides. Results also show that the effects of fault parameters on the run-up were quite different depending on the offshore coral reef width. This phenomenon strongly constrained the fault width to 30 km. Our tsunami ray tracing analysis further revealed the effects of bathymetry on tsunami propagation. It is noteworthy that meter-long huge tsunami boulders tend to be distributed along the specific coasts at which the tsunami was concentrated by bathymetric effects. This finding suggests that past tsunamis, including the 1771 event, might have affected the specific coral reefs on Sakishima Islands repeatedly, which is crucially important for understanding the heterogeneous distribution of tsunami boulders. This feature might also be useful to elucidate the effects of large tsunamis on the corals and reefs because a direct comparison of coral reefs that are damaged and not damaged by tsunami waves is testable in narrow areas in the case of the Sakishima Islands.