金融稳定沟通会影响金融资产价格吗?英格兰银行沟通实验的证据

Hamdi Jbir
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摘要

本文研究了英国央行(BoE)在 2013 年至 2018 年间有关金融稳定的沟通情况。我们运用事件研究来确定沟通对金融机构股市回报的影响。我们发现,英国央行的公告会给非银行和银行系统(包括全球系统重要性银行)带来负的平均异常回报。当我们考虑沟通的语气时,也会出现同样的效应。此外,我们还构建了宏观审慎决策沟通指数,结果表明,只有当决策沟通指数值高于平均值时,英国央行的语气才会产生显著的负面影响。此外,我们发现有证据表明,负的异常回报往往出现在英国脱欧公投之后,而在此之前我们发现正的异常回报。此外,我们没有发现与沟通方式有关的明显影响。
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Does financial stability communication affect financial asset prices? Evidence from the Bank of England's communication experiment
This paper examines the Bank of England's (BoE) communication on financial stability between 2013 and 2018. We apply an event study to determine the communication effect on financial institutions' stock market returns. We find that the BoE's announcements generate negative average abnormal returns for non‐banking and banking systems, including the Global Systemically Important Banks. The same effect emerges when we consider the communication's tone. Furthermore, we construct a macroprudential decision communication index and show that the negative impact of the BoE's tone is significant only when the decision communication index value is above average. Moreover, we find evidence that negative abnormal returns tend to appear after the Brexit referendum, while we find positive abnormal returns before that date. Besides, we do not identify a noticeable effect related to communication practices.
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