From hazard to risk prioritization: a case study to predict drug-induced cholestasis using physiologically based kinetic modeling.

Cholestasis is characterized by hepatic accumulation of bile acids. Clinical manifestation of cholestasis only occurs in a small proportion of exposed individuals. The present study aims to develop a new approach methodology (NAM) to predict drug-induced cholestasis as a result of drug-induced hepatic bile acid efflux inhibition and the resulting bile acid accumulation. To this end, hepatic concentrations of a panel of drugs were predicted by a generic physiologically based kinetic (PBK) drug model. Their effects on hepatic bile acid efflux were incorporated in a PBK model for bile acids. The predicted bile acid accumulation was used as a measure for a drug's cholestatic potency. The selected drugs were known to inhibit hepatic bile acid efflux in an assay with primary suspension-cultured hepatocytes and classified as common, rare, or no for cholestasis incidence. Common cholestasis drugs included were atorvastatin, chlorpromazine, cyclosporine, glimepiride, ketoconazole, and ritonavir. The cholestasis incidence of the drugs appeared not to be adequately predicted by their K_i for inhibition of hepatic bile acid efflux, but rather by the AUC of the PBK model predicted internal hepatic drug concentration at therapeutic dose level above this K_i. People with slower drug clearance, a larger bile acid pool, reduced bile salt export pump (BSEP) abundance, or given higher than therapeutic dose levels were predicted to be at higher risk to develop drug-induced cholestasis. The results provide a proof-of-principle of using a PBK-based NAM for cholestasis risk prioritization as a result of transporter inhibition and identification of individual risk factors.