气候模型

Aurore Voldoire
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引用次数: 0

摘要

什么是气候模型?它们是在什么基础上建立的?如何对它们进行评估?它们可靠吗?如何探索未来的气候?本文试图通过强调这些模型的局限性及其提出的科学问题来回答这些问题。气候模型是了解气候和预测未来变化的宝贵工具。最重要的是,它们构成了一个数字实验室,使科学家能够探索构成气候系统的复杂过程。利用这些模型进行的预测遵循通用协议,可以对不同模型产生的模拟结果进行严格比较。通过这种方式,我们可以量化气候预测中模型的不确定性。
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Climate models
What are climate models? On what basis are they built? How are they evaluated? Are they reliable? How is the climate of the future explored? This article attempts to answer these questions by highlighting the limitations of these models and the scientific questions they raise. Climate models are a valuable tool for understanding the climate and anticipating future changes. Above all, they constitute a digital laboratory that allows scientists to explore the complex processes that make up the climate system. Projections made with these models follow common protocols that allow the simulations produced by different models to be compared rigorously. In this way, we can quantify the modelling uncertainty in climate projections.
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