预测民粹主义态度的综合模型

Ivana Piterová, Alexander Loziak
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引用次数: 0

摘要

民粹主义态度是多因果关系,但对其决定因素的研究往往是单独的、小群体的或不同样本的。本研究利用单一样本提出了一个预测民粹主义态度的综合模型。我们采用意识形态方法,将民粹主义态度衡量为反精英主义、人民主权和同质性,而精英和人民之间的差异则是摩尼教式的。在对斯洛伐克具有代表性的性别、年龄、教育程度和地区配额样本(N = 254)进行分析后发现,在控制了其他变量后,相对贫困、相信简单的解决方案、外部政治效力、对专家的信任和阴谋心态是民粹主义态度的重要预测因素。在模型中加入变量后,教育和主观收入的影响逐渐消失。该模型解释了民粹主义态度中 54% 的变异。本文就其局限性和国家的具体情况对研究结果进行了详细讨论。
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A comprehensive model for predicting populist attitudes
Populist attitudes are multi-causal, but their determinants are often studied separately, in small groups, or in different samples. This study presents a comprehensive model for the prediction of populist attitudes using a single sample. We use an ideological approach and measure of populist attitudes as anti-elitism, popular sovereignty, and homogeneity, while the differences between the elite and the people are Manichean. Analyzing a sample based on a representative quota for gender, age, education and region of Slovakia (N = 254), it was found that relative deprivation, belief in simple solutions, external political efficacy, trust towards experts, and conspiracy mentality were significant predictors of populist attitudes after controlling for other variables. The effect of education and subjective income faded out after adding variables into the model. The model explained 54% of the variance in populist attitudes. The results are discussed in detail with respect to its limitations and country specifics.
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