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引用次数: 0
摘要
地缘政治风险包括战争、恐怖主义和国家间的紧张局势,对全球事务产生重大影响。以往的研究探讨了地缘政治风险与军费开支之间的关系。然而,这些研究受到用于评估地缘政治风险的测量工具的某些缺陷的限制。利用文本分析技术引入新的地缘政治风险指数,为克服其中一些局限性提供了一种方法。尽管取得了这一进展,但探索这一地缘政治风险指数对军费开支行为的预测能力的研究仍然很少。具体来说,以前没有任何研究调查过本地和全球地缘政治风险指数对军费开支行为的预测能力。为了弥补这一不足,本研究采用面板 VAR 分析法,对全球 34 个国家进行了研究,时间跨度为 1993 年至 2022 年。结果表明,各国的军费开支行为受当地地缘政治风险而非全球地缘政治风险的影响很大。此外,研究结果还显示,某一年地缘政治风险的增加可以预测随后两年的军费开支行为。这些发现为决策者了解政府的军费开支行为提供了宝贵的见解。
Can local and global geopolitical risk predict governments' military spending behaviour? International evidence
Geopolitical risk, encompassing wars, terrorism, and tensions between states, exerts a significant impact on global affairs. Previous studies have examined the relationship between geopolitical risk and military spending. However, these studies were limited by certain shortcomings in the measurement tools used to assess geopolitical risk. The introduction of a new geopolitical risk index, leveraging textual analysis technology, offers a way to overcome some of these limitations. Despite this advancement, research exploring the predictive capacity of this geopolitical risk index on military spending behaviour remains scarce. Specifically, no previous studies have investigated the predictive power of both local and global geopolitical risk indices on military spending behaviour. To bridge this gap, this study employs panel VAR analysis for 34 countries worldwide, spanning from 1993 to 2022. The results indicate that the military spending behaviour of countries is significantly influenced by local geopolitical risk rather than global geopolitical risk. Furthermore, the findings also reveal that an increase in geopolitical risk during a given year can predict military spending behaviour in the subsequent 2 years. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to understand governments' behaviour regarding military spending.
期刊介绍:
The Scottish Journal of Political Economy is a generalist journal with an explicitly international reach in both readership and authorship. It is dedicated to publishing the highest quality research in any field of economics, without prejudice to the methodology or to the analytical techniques used. The editors encourage submissions in all fields of economics in order to provide practical contributions to the literature, and to further the influence of economics in the world of practical affairs.