定量方法的归纳法--瑞典上市公司目标债务水平案例研究中新型惩罚模型的应用

Åsa Grek, Fredrik Hartwig, Mark Dougherty
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摘要

本文提出了一种对调查数据进行定量归纳研究的方法,当所关注的变量遵循一种序数分布时。本文介绍了一种基于新型和传统惩罚模型的方法。本研究的主要目的是在新的应用中利用新的惩罚方法,从教学角度介绍该方法。采用了一个案例来概述该方法。该案例旨在选择与瑞典上市公司目标债务水平相关的解释变量。调查对象与公司年报中的会计信息相匹配。然而,数据存在缺失:为了充分利用惩罚模型,我们采用了基于分类和回归树(CART)的多重归因链式方程(MICE)来解决这一问题。对估算数据采用了六种惩罚模型:分组多叉套索模型、非分组多叉套索模型、并行元素链接多叉-序数模型(ELMO)、半并行 ELMO 模型、非并行 ELMO 模型和累积广义单调递增前向分阶段模型(GMIFS)。旧模型为假设形成过程提供了多个解释变量,而新模型(ELMO 和 GMIFS)只确定了一个速动资产比率。随后的测试表明,该变量是影响目标债务水平的唯一具有统计意义的变量。
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An Inductive Approach to Quantitative Methodology—Application of Novel Penalising Models in a Case Study of Target Debt Level in Swedish Listed Companies
This paper proposes a method for conducting quantitative inductive research on survey data when the variable of interest follows an ordinal distribution. A methodology based on novel and traditional penalising models is described. The main aim of this study is to pedagogically present the method utilising the new penalising methods in a new application. A case was employed to outline the methodology. The case aims to select explanatory variables correlated with the target debt level in Swedish listed companies. The survey respondents were matched with accounting information from the companies’ annual reports. However, missing data were present: to fully utilise penalising models, we employed classification and regression tree (CART)-based imputations by multiple imputations chained equations (MICEs) to address this problem. The imputed data were subjected to six penalising models: grouped multinomial lasso, ungrouped multinomial lasso, parallel element linked multinomial-ordinal (ELMO), semi-parallel ELMO, nonparallel ELMO, and cumulative generalised monotone incremental forward stagewise (GMIFS). While the older models yielded several explanatory variables for the hypothesis formation process, the new models (ELMO and GMIFS) identified only one quick asset ratio. Subsequent testing revealed that this variable was the only statistically significant variable that affected the target debt level.
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