“Troubled” Meanings: An Affect Control Theory Exploration of the Conflict in Northern Ireland

The Troubles in Northern Ireland ranks among the most violent periods in recent history. While social movements scholars have long sought to understand the conflict, often they do not include micro-level approaches. We use affect control theory and cultural meanings among Catholics gathered at the height of The Troubles to create prototypical group members and then simulate interactions across and between groups. Using cultural meanings gathered at a Catholic high school in Belfast in 1977, we find that Catholic (in-group) identities hold more positive meanings than Protestant identities. This remains true for identities within the paramilitary organizations and non-combatant identities. However, we find that the meanings of combatant identities are much lower in evaluation—a measure of goodness—than non-combatant identities. Our simulations suggest that interactions between groups are expected to be relatively innocuous. However, we do find that, in simulations, combatants—on both sides of the conflict—are expected to interact negatively with others. These findings and the methods we use suggest future avenues for both researchers and policymakers to better understand conflict and peacemaking.