价格与党派:党派和成本在美国气候舆论中的重要性

Eric G. Scheuch
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摘要

有关美国气候舆论的现有研究表明,选民是否支持某项政策会受到多种变量的影响。然而,很少有研究对哪些变量对形成气候政策的持久多数支持最重要,以及这些变量的不同结果如何影响这种支持进行实证测试。我使用联合实验来测试美国选民对气候减缓政策的六个最重要变量的重视程度(如现有文献所示),以及这些变量中哪些潜在选项能吸引最多的支持。与以往的联合实验相比,我引入了党派和政策水平,以及更现实的政策成本范围,从而提高了外部有效性。我发现,一般来说,不同种族、性别和党派的选民对某些变量的重视程度要比其他变量高出十倍,他们更倾向于民主党或两党的低成本政策,并能提供各种好处。
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Price and party: The importance of partisanship and cost in American climate public opinion
Existing research on American climate opinion demonstrates that a wide variety of variables impact whether voters support a given policy. However, little research has empirically tested which variables matter the most in creating durable majority support for climate policies, and how varying outcomes of those variables can impact such support. I use a conjoint experiment to test the extent to which American voters value the six most important variables around climate mitigation policy, as illustrated in the current literature, and which potential options among those values attract the greatest support. I improve in external validity over previous conjoints by introducing partisanship and policy level, as well as more realistic ranges for policy cost. I find that voters generally-and across racial, gender, and partisan lines- value some variables ten times higher than others, and prefer Democratic or Bipartisan policies that are low cost and provide a variety of benefits.
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