从角色角度看俄欧能源对话机制的衰落

Weichao Shu
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摘要

能源问题是俄罗斯与欧洲互动的核心。本文基于角色理论视角,系统梳理了冷战后俄欧能源对话机制的演变过程。本文将角色定位和角色预期作为两个核心变量,分析了俄欧能源对话机制的影响因素。因此,本文总结了六个影响因素,包括与角色定位相关的政治文化、能源战略和能源集团,以及与角色预期相关的历史传统、国际危机和能源革命。本文认为,俄欧能源对话机制的演变呈现出三个特点:一是与俄欧关系的一致性;二是政治文化差异形成的角色预期理想化;三是能源合作结构不对称的制约性。因此,俄欧能源对话机制处于停滞状态,俄欧能源合作呈现碎片化趋势。
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THE DECAY OF THE RUSSIA-EU ENERGY DIALOGUE MECHANISM FROM A ROLE PERSPECTIVE
The energy issue is at the core of the interaction between Russia and Europe. This paper, based on the perspective of role theory, systematically reviews the evolution of the Russia-Europe energy dialogue mechanism in the post-Cold War era. It combines role positioning and role expectations as two core variables to analyze the influencing factors of the Russia-Europe energy dialogue mechanism. Therefore, six influencing factors are summarized, including political culture, energy strategy, and energy groups related to role positioning, as well as historical traditions, international crises, and energy revolutions related to role expectations. The paper argues that the evolution of the Russia-Europe energy dialogue mechanism exhibits three characteristics: firstly, consistency with Russia-Europe relations; secondly, idealism in role expectations formed due to political cultural differences; and thirdly, the constraining nature of the asymmetrical structure on energy cooperation. Consequently, the Russia-Europe energy dialogue mechanism is in a state of stagnation, and Russia-Europe energy cooperation is showing a fragmented trend.
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