恢复伊朗核协议的谈判失败

IF 2.2 3区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Global Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI:10.1111/1758-5899.13387
Tom Sauer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

拜登政府上台后,人们希望恢复《联合全面行动计划》(JCPOA)(2015 年),即所谓的伊朗核协议。由于国内因素的限制,同时伊朗也有一个有效的替代方案,美国和罗哈尼政府在谈判过程中都采取了强硬手段。随着伊朗核计划的进一步推进以及与俄罗斯和中国关系的加强,保守的莱西政府对恢复核协议更加不感兴趣。剩下的都是对伊朗比对美国更有利的小协议。美国解冻了(或将解冻)伊朗数十亿美元的资金,而伊朗核计划的突破时间则缩减为零天。鉴于国际社会(尤其是美国)的总体目标是阻止伊朗制造原子弹,我们只能得出这样的结论:这一政策基本上失败了。虽然德黑兰尚未制造出原子弹,但它现在比以往任何时候都更接近原子弹。自由理论,尤其是普特南的两级博弈理论有助于解释这一结果。
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The failed negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal

When the Biden administration came to power, the hope was that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (2015), the so-called Iran nuclear deal, would be restored. Due to domestic constraints and in the case of Iran also a valid alternative, both the US and the Rohani administration played hardball during the negotiations. As the Iranian nuclear program further advanced and the ties with Russia and China became stronger, the conservative Raisi administration was even less interested in reviving the nuclear deal. What remains are mini-deals that are more advantageous for Iran than for the US. Billions of dollars of Iran are (or will be) unfrozen by the US, while Iran's break-out time of its nuclear program has shrunk to zero days. Given that the overall goal of the international community (and especially the US) was to prevent Iran from building the bomb, one can only conclude that that policy has basically failed. Although Teheran has not built the bomb yet, it is now closer to the bomb than ever. Liberal theory and more in particular Putnam's two-level game help explain this outcome.

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来源期刊
Global Policy
Global Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
10.50%
发文量
125
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