规划未来:印度 2035 年卫生支出预测

Pragyan Monalisa Sahoo , Himanshu Sekhar Rout
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目标 了解医疗支出的过去趋势并预测其未来变化,对于规划和减少对自付费用(OOP)的依赖至关重要。本研究分析了印度的医疗支出模式,并预测了直至 2035 年的未来趋势和模式。方法从经济合作与发展组织(OECD)的 iLibrary 和 2019 年国家健康账户数据库中收集了 2000 年至 2019 年印度的医疗支出数据。此外,还利用了世界银行的国内生产总值(GDP)数据。描述性统计分析了医疗支出的构成和模式,而指数平滑模型则预测了未来的医疗支出。结果研究结果表明,OOP 支出是主要的医疗资金来源,其次是政府支出和私人预付支出。医疗卫生总支出占 GDP 的比例保持稳定,而人均医疗卫生支出则有所波动。各邦的支出存在差异,卡纳塔克邦主要依靠私人预付保险。未来的预测表明,人均医疗支出和总医疗支出占 GDP 的比例将有所下降,而政府所占的比例将略有上升。预计人均预付费私人医疗支出和自费医疗支出占总支出的比例将保持相对稳定,但绝对值仍然很高。 结论:本研究强调了印度医疗支出的变化,其特点是自费医疗支出高、公共覆盖面有限,需要投资和改革以改善医疗服务的可及性和公平性。
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Charting the course: India’s health expenditure projections for 2035

Objectives

Understanding past trends and forecasting future changes in health spending is vital for planning and reducing reliance on out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses. The current study analyzed health expenditure patterns in India and forecasted future trends and patterns until 2035.

Methods

Data on health expenditure in India from 2000 to 2019 was collected from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) iLibrary and National Health Accounts 2019 databases. Gross domestic product (GDP) data from the World Bank was also utilized. Descriptive statistics analyzed the composition and pattern, while the exponential smoothing model forecasted future health expenditures.

Results

The findings revealed that expenditure made by OOP is the primary health financing source, followed by government and pre-paid private spending. The percentage of GDP allocated to total health expenditure remains stable, while the per capita health expenditure fluctuates. Variations in expenditure among states are observed, with Karnataka relying heavily on pre-paid private coverage. Future projections suggest a decline in per capita and total health expenditure as a share of GDP, with a slight increase in the government’s share. Pre-paid private expenditure per capita and OOP health expenditure as a share of the total is projected to remain relatively constant but still high in absolute terms.

Conclusion

The study highlights variations in health spending in India, characterized by high OOP spending, limited public coverage, and a need for investments, and reforms to improve healthcare access and equity.

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来源期刊
Global health journal (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
Global health journal (Amsterdam, Netherlands) Public Health and Health Policy
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5.00
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