Regional Variation in Lifetime Probability of Admission to Residential Aged Care in Australia.

Objectives: This paper aims to apply a novel demographic technique to update - and extend to sub-national regions - estimates of the lifetime probability of admission to residential aged care.

Methods: Making optimal use of Australian data sources on aged care usage, mortality and population, this study adopts a two-population life table approach to produce an updated set of national probability estimates and first-time regional estimates.

Results: The probability of admission generally increases with age: nationally, lifetime probability at age 65 is 50% for women and 37% for men, rising to 55% and 46%, respectively, at age 85. This general pattern varied somewhat across regions.

Discussion: The regional results point to inequities in the uptake of care, thereby informing providers, governments, aged care advocates and anyone interested in equity of access.