Improving selection decisions with mating information by accounting for Mendelian sampling variances looking two generations ahead

Breeding programs are judged by the genetic level of animals that are used to disseminate genetic progress. These animals are typically the best ones of the population. To maximise the genetic level of very good animals in the next generation, parents that are more likely to produce top performing offspring need to be selected. The ability of individuals to produce high-performing progeny differs because of differences in their breeding values and gametic variances. Differences in gametic variances among individuals are caused by differences in heterozygosity and linkage. The use of the gametic Mendelian sampling variance has been proposed before, for use in the usefulness criterion or Index5, and in this work, we extend existing approaches by not only considering the gametic Mendelian sampling variance of individuals, but also of their potential offspring. Thus, the criteria developed in this study plan one additional generation ahead. For simplicity, we assumed that the true quantitative trait loci (QTL) effects, genetic map and the haplotypes of all animals are known. In this study, we propose a new selection criterion, ExpBVSelGrOff, which describes the genetic level of selected grand-offspring that are produced by selected offspring of a particular mating. We compare our criterion with other published criteria in a stochastic simulation of an ongoing breeding program for 21 generations for proof of concept. ExpBVSelGrOff performed better than all other tested criteria, like the usefulness criterion or Index5 which have been proposed in the literature, without compromising short-term gains. After only five generations, when selection is strong (1%), selection based on ExpBVSelGrOff achieved 5.8% more commercial genetic gain and retained 25% more genetic variance without compromising inbreeding rate compared to selection based only on breeding values. Our proposed selection criterion offers a new tool to accelerate genetic progress for contemporary genomic breeding programs. It retains more genetic variance than previously published criteria that plan less far ahead. Considering future gametic Mendelian sampling variances in the selection process also seems promising for maintaining more genetic variance.