Machine learning-based response assessment in patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: radiomics analysis for assessing tumor regression grade using T2-weighted magnetic resonance images.

Purpose: This study aimed to assess tumor regression grade (TRG) in patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) through a machine learning-based radiomics analysis using baseline T2-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) images.

Materials and methods: In total, 148 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer(T2-4 or N+) who underwent MR imaging at baseline and after chemoradiotherapy between January 2010 and May 2021 were included. A region of interest for each tumor mass was drawn by a radiologist on oblique axial T2-weighted images, and main features were selected using principal component analysis after dimension reduction among 116 radiomics and three clinical features. Among eight learning models that were used for prediction model development, the model showing best performance was selected. Treatment responses were classified as either good or poor based on the MR-assessed TRG (mrTRG) and pathologic TRG (pTRG). The model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) to classify the response group.

Results: Approximately 49% of the patients were in the good response (GR) group based on mrTRG (73/148) and 26.9% based on pTRG (28/104). The AUCs of clinical data, radiomics models, and combined radiomics with clinical data model for predicting mrTRG were 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73, 0.87), 0.74 (95% CI 0.66, 0.81), and 0.75(95% CI 0.68, 0.82), and those for predicting pTRG was 0.62 (95% CI 0.52, 0.71), 0.74 (95% CI 0.65, 0.82), and 0.79 (95% CI 0.71, 0.87).

Conclusion: Radiomics combined with clinical data model using baseline T2-weighted MR images demonstrated feasible diagnostic performance in predicting both MR-assessed and pathologic treatment response in patients with rectal cancer after NCRT.