{"title":"欧洲季节内温度变化趋势:站点数据与网格数据和再分析数据的比较","authors":"Tomáš Krauskopf, Radan Huth","doi":"10.1002/joc.8512","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Trends in temperature variability are often referred to have higher effect on temperature extremes than trends in the mean. We investigate trends in three complementary measures of intraseasonal temperature variability: (a) standard deviation of mean daily temperature (SD), (b) mean absolute value of day‐to‐day temperature change (DTD) and (c) 1‐day lagged temporal autocorrelation of temperature (LAG). It is a well‐established fact that different types of data (station, gridded, reanalyses) provide different temperature characteristics and particularly their trends. Moreover, we have uncovered that trends in measures of variability are considerably sensitive to data inhomogeneities. Therefore, we use five different datasets, one station based (ECA&D), one gridded (EOBS) and three reanalyses (JRA‐55, NCEP/NCAR, 20CR), and compare them. The period from 1961 to 2014 where all datasets overlap is examined, and the linear regression method is utilized to calculate trends of investigated measures in summer and winter. Intraseasonal temperature variability tends to decrease in winter, especially in eastern and northern Europe, where trends below −7%·decade−1 are detected for all measures. Decreases in DTD and LAG (indicating increase in persistence) prevail also in summer while summer SD tends to increase. The increase in the width of temperature distribution and the simultaneous increase in persistence indicate a tendency towards the rise in the frequency of extended extreme events in summer. Unlike previous studies, our results imply that reanalyses are not the least accurate in determining trends. JRA‐55 appears to be the least diverging from other datasets, while the largest discrepancies are detected for DTD at station data.","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trends in intraseasonal temperature variability in Europe: Comparison of station data with gridded data and reanalyses\",\"authors\":\"Tomáš Krauskopf, Radan Huth\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/joc.8512\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Trends in temperature variability are often referred to have higher effect on temperature extremes than trends in the mean. We investigate trends in three complementary measures of intraseasonal temperature variability: (a) standard deviation of mean daily temperature (SD), (b) mean absolute value of day‐to‐day temperature change (DTD) and (c) 1‐day lagged temporal autocorrelation of temperature (LAG). It is a well‐established fact that different types of data (station, gridded, reanalyses) provide different temperature characteristics and particularly their trends. Moreover, we have uncovered that trends in measures of variability are considerably sensitive to data inhomogeneities. Therefore, we use five different datasets, one station based (ECA&D), one gridded (EOBS) and three reanalyses (JRA‐55, NCEP/NCAR, 20CR), and compare them. The period from 1961 to 2014 where all datasets overlap is examined, and the linear regression method is utilized to calculate trends of investigated measures in summer and winter. Intraseasonal temperature variability tends to decrease in winter, especially in eastern and northern Europe, where trends below −7%·decade−1 are detected for all measures. Decreases in DTD and LAG (indicating increase in persistence) prevail also in summer while summer SD tends to increase. The increase in the width of temperature distribution and the simultaneous increase in persistence indicate a tendency towards the rise in the frequency of extended extreme events in summer. Unlike previous studies, our results imply that reanalyses are not the least accurate in determining trends. JRA‐55 appears to be the least diverging from other datasets, while the largest discrepancies are detected for DTD at station data.\",\"PeriodicalId\":13779,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Climatology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Climatology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8512\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8512","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Trends in intraseasonal temperature variability in Europe: Comparison of station data with gridded data and reanalyses
Trends in temperature variability are often referred to have higher effect on temperature extremes than trends in the mean. We investigate trends in three complementary measures of intraseasonal temperature variability: (a) standard deviation of mean daily temperature (SD), (b) mean absolute value of day‐to‐day temperature change (DTD) and (c) 1‐day lagged temporal autocorrelation of temperature (LAG). It is a well‐established fact that different types of data (station, gridded, reanalyses) provide different temperature characteristics and particularly their trends. Moreover, we have uncovered that trends in measures of variability are considerably sensitive to data inhomogeneities. Therefore, we use five different datasets, one station based (ECA&D), one gridded (EOBS) and three reanalyses (JRA‐55, NCEP/NCAR, 20CR), and compare them. The period from 1961 to 2014 where all datasets overlap is examined, and the linear regression method is utilized to calculate trends of investigated measures in summer and winter. Intraseasonal temperature variability tends to decrease in winter, especially in eastern and northern Europe, where trends below −7%·decade−1 are detected for all measures. Decreases in DTD and LAG (indicating increase in persistence) prevail also in summer while summer SD tends to increase. The increase in the width of temperature distribution and the simultaneous increase in persistence indicate a tendency towards the rise in the frequency of extended extreme events in summer. Unlike previous studies, our results imply that reanalyses are not the least accurate in determining trends. JRA‐55 appears to be the least diverging from other datasets, while the largest discrepancies are detected for DTD at station data.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions