B.6 Long-term risk of subsequent stroke after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: After a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke, the long-term risk of subsequent stroke is uncertain. Methods: Electronic databases were searched for observational studies reporting subsequent stroke during a minimum follow-up of 1 year in patients with TIA or minor stroke. Unpublished data on number of stroke events and exact person-time at risk contributed by all patients during discrete time intervals of follow-up were requested from the authors of included studies. This information was used to calculate the incidence of stroke in individual studies, and results across studies were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Fifteen independent cohorts involving 129794 patients were included in the analysis. The pooled incidence rate of subsequent stroke per 100 person-years was 6.4 events in the first year and 2.0 events in the second through tenth years, with cumulative incidences of 14% at 5 years and 21% at 10 years. Based on 10 studies with information available on fatal stroke, the pooled case fatality rate of subsequent stroke was 9.5% (95% CI, 5.9 – 13.8). Conclusions: One in five patients is expected to experience a subsequent stroke within 10 years after a TIA or minor stroke, with every tenth patient expected to die from their subsequent stroke.