上巴拉圭盆地的气候变化和对潘塔纳尔的水文影响

IF 4.7 Q2 MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS ACS Applied Bio Materials Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI:10.2166/wcc.2024.081
Filipe Henrique Miranda Ferreira, Wilson Cabral Sousa Júnior, Danielle Almeida Bressiani, Walter Manoel Mendes Filho, Demerval Aparecido Gonçalves
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究分析了气候变化对上巴拉圭盆地水文条件的影响,该盆地的出水口是巴西马托格罗索州卡塞雷斯市的河道,靠近高原/泛美平原分界线。利用 SWAT+ 水文模型以及 HADGEM 和 MIROC 模型的预测,模拟了辐射浓度阈值 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 下的不同流量情况。结果显示,HADGEM 4.5 的年均流量减少了 44.07%,HADGEM 8.5 的年均流量减少了 51.00%,MIROC 4.5 的年均流量减少了 37.35%,MIROC 8.5 的年均流量减少了 39.12%。这些结果对于水资源管理、巴拉圭-巴拉那水道的运行以及生态系统的恢复能力至关重要,有助于在考虑到预测的气候和水文变化的情况下进行决策和管理。
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Climate change in the upper Paraguay Basin and hydrological impacts on the Pantanal
This study analyzed the impact of climate change on the hydrological conditions of the Upper Paraguay Basin, which has as its outlet the river channel in the municipality of Cáceres – Mato Grosso, Brazil, close to the plateau/Pantanal plain divide. Using the SWAT+ hydrological model and projections from the HADGEM and MIROC models, different flow scenarios were simulated under radiative concentration thresholds (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed an average annual reduction of 44.07% in HADGEM 4.5, 51.00% in HADGEM 8.5, 37.35% in MIROC 4.5, and 39.12% in MIROC 8.5 inflows. The results are crucial for the management of water resources, the operation of the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway, and the resilience of the ecosystem, helping decision-making and management considering the predicted climate and hydrological changes.
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来源期刊
ACS Applied Bio Materials
ACS Applied Bio Materials Chemistry-Chemistry (all)
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
2.10%
发文量
464
期刊介绍: ACS Applied Bio Materials is an interdisciplinary journal publishing original research covering all aspects of biomaterials and biointerfaces including and beyond the traditional biosensing, biomedical and therapeutic applications. The journal is devoted to reports of new and original experimental and theoretical research of an applied nature that integrates knowledge in the areas of materials, engineering, physics, bioscience, and chemistry into important bio applications. The journal is specifically interested in work that addresses the relationship between structure and function and assesses the stability and degradation of materials under relevant environmental and biological conditions.
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