Using proxy data and vegetation modelling to predict past, current and future distributional shifts of Butea monosperma, a marker of land degradation in India

Extensive deviations in spatio-temporal social and environmental dynamics currently alter the health of ecosystems and the services they provide. Detecting the causes that contribute to the distribution of a natural forest species capable of restoring the lost ecosystem function and productivity will aid in determining better food security, livelihoods and provision of ecosystem goods and services. We modelled the spatial range of Butea monosperma (B. monosperma) under past, that is, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Middle Holocene (MH), current and future (2070) climatic scenarios with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) trained on present-day occurrences. We identified areas of suitable habitats for which the estimation of habitat stability is predicted in all the models at different times. To validate the inferred suitable habitat, we tested the model by the current occurrence and fossil pollen data of B. monosperma. Our distribution models agree with the fossil pollen records for the MH (4,500–7,000 yr BP) and predict the prevalence of B. monosperma covering 84.22% of the Indian subcontinent with maximum habitat stability in western and southwestern India (10.95%). The widespread potential distribution of the plant species during the LGM supports the presence of the last remnants of tropical dry deciduous forest in the region. However, a decline in habitat suitability (62.84%) is predicted under current and future climatic scenarios with maximum stability (0.90%–3.09%) along the Western Ghats, Nilgiri hills, Gir range in the western India and north-eastern region covering the Assam Valley and foothills of Tripura and Mizo hills. Temperature seasonality (33.6%) measured in terms of variable contribution in MaxEnt model significantly affects the distribution shift of B. monosperma, along with annual precipitation (22.8%) and annual mean temperature (16.2%). Model results provide evidence of habitat reduction and identify the stability hotspots for B. monosperma for its conservation and establishment of land management policies mainly for the dry tropics.