季节性对基孔肯雅病毒动态影响的数学分析

Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI:10.28924/2291-8639-22-2024-86
Hanan Almuashi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中,我们讨论了一个模拟基孔肯雅病毒在具有一般发病率的季节性环境中动态变化的数学系统。我们确定了周期轨道的存在性、唯一性、实在性和有界性。我们表明,全局动态是由基本繁殖数(用 R0 表示)决定的,并通过线性积分算子的谱半径计算得出。如果 R01 的轨迹收敛到周期轨道,我们将展示无病周期解的全局稳定性。最后,我们展示了一些证实理论发现的数值示例。
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Mathematical Analysis for the Influence of Seasonality on Chikungunya Virus Dynamics
In this article, we discuss a mathematical system modelling Chikungunya virus dynamics in a seasonal environment with general incidence rates. We establish the existence, uniqueness, positivity and boundedness of a periodic orbit. We show that the global dynamics is determined using the basic reproduction number denoted by R0 and calculated using the spectral radius of a linear integral operator. We show the global stability of the disease free periodic solution if R0<1 and we show also the persistence of the disease if R0>1 where the trajectories converge to a periodic orbit. Finally, we display some numerical examples confirming the theoretical findings.
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