从粮食安全角度看中国农业生态效益与城镇化的耦合协调

Xiuli He, Wenxin Liu
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摘要

在研究农业生态效益与城镇化之间的耦合协调关系时,考虑粮食安全问题至关重要,尤其是在中国这样一个人口众多的国家。本文以中国 31 个省份为研究单元,时间跨度为 2000 年至 2020 年。在农业生态效益概念的基础上,建立了包括不良产出(碳排放)在内的评价指标体系,并利用 SBM-DEA 模型计算了农业生态效益得分。构建了涵盖六个维度、十二项指标的城市化评价指标体系。采用熵值法测算了城市化综合指数。在此基础上,运用耦合协调模型量化了中国省级尺度的农业生态效率与城镇化之间的关系。结果表明,中国所有省级单位的农业生态效率总体上呈提高趋势。平均效率的空间格局为:粮食消费大区>粮食产消平衡区>粮食生产大区。农业生态效益与城镇化耦合程度普遍较低。目前,还没有地区达到协同或高耦合阶段。目前大部分地区处于耦合度为 0.3 < C ≤ 0.5 的拮抗阶段。耦合协调度等级划分由 "严重失衡"、"中度失衡"、"轻度失衡"、"初级协调 "四级变为 "中度失衡"、"轻度失衡"、"初级协调"、"中级协调 "四级。严重失衡 "水平消失,"中等协调 "水平出现,"轻度失衡 "水平成为最大尺度水平。从粮食安全的角度看,"初级协调 "和 "中级协调 "的粮食生产比重不足 10%,这些省份的粮食生产从未实现自给自足。轻度不平衡 "粮食产量比重达到 62.4%,"中度不平衡 "人均粮食产量达到 846.7 公斤。耦合协调程度较低的省份粮食安全保障能力较强。由此可见,农业生态效益与城镇化耦合协调程度越低,粮食自给能力越强。在上述研究成果的基础上,我们探讨了以技术进步和技术效率为核心,提高粮食主产区农业生态效率的策略。此外,我们还从生产和贸易两个维度分析了在农业生态效率与城市化高度协调的地区实现粮食自给自足的方法。
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Coupling Coordination between Agricultural Eco-Efficiency and Urbanization in China Considering Food Security
When studying the coupling coordination relationship between agricultural eco-efficiency and urbanization, it is crucial to consider food security, especially in a populous country like China. This paper focuses on 31 provinces in China as the research units, covering the time period from 2000 to 2020. Based on the concept of agricultural eco-efficiency, an evaluation index system was developed to include undesirable outputs (carbon emissions), and agricultural eco-efficiency scores were calculated using the SBM–DEA model. An urbanization evaluation index system, covering six dimensions and twelve indexes, was constructed. A comprehensive index of urbanization is measured using the entropy method. On this basis, a coupling coordination model was applied to quantify the relationship between agricultural eco-efficiency and urbanization at the provincial scale in China. The results showed that the agricultural eco-efficiency of all provincial units in China exhibited an overall trend of improvement. Average efficiency followed a spatial pattern of majority grain-consuming areas > grain production–consumption balance areas > majority grain-producing areas. The level of coupling between agricultural eco-efficiency and urbanization is generally low. Currently, no regions have reached the stage of synergy or high-level coupling. Most regions are currently in an antagonistic stage with a coupling degree of 0.3 < C ≤ 0.5. The classification of coupling coordination levels changed from four levels of “severe imbalance”, “moderate imbalance”, “mild imbalance”, and “primary coordination” to “moderate imbalance”, “mild imbalance”, “primary coordination”, and “intermediate coordination”. The level of “severe imbalance” disappeared, the level of “intermediate coordination” appeared, and the level of “mild imbalance” became the largest scale level. From the perspective of food security, the proportion of grain production in the categories of “primary coordination” and “intermediate coordination” was less than 10%, and these provinces never achieved self-sufficiency in food production. The proportion of grain production at the “mild imbalance” level reached 62.4%, while the per capita grain production at the “moderate imbalance” level reached 846.7 kg. Provinces with lower levels of coupling coordination have stronger food security capabilities. It can be observed that the weaker the coupling coordination between agricultural eco-efficiency and urbanization, the higher the food self-sufficiency. Based on the research results above, we discussed strategies to enhance agricultural eco-efficiency in majority grain-producing regions by focusing on technological progress and technical efficiency. Additionally, we analyzed approaches to achieve grain self-sufficiency in regions characterized by a high level of coordination between agricultural eco-efficiency and urbanization, considering both production and trade dimensions.
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