地中海农业食品行业的气候变化风险:希腊案例

Elena Georgopoulou, Nikos Gakis, Dimitris Kapetanakis, Dimitris Voloudakis, M. Markaki, Y. Sarafidis, Dimitris P. Lalas, G. Laliotis, Konstantina Akamati, I. Bizelis, Markos Daskalakis, S. Mirasgedis, I. Tzamtzis
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摘要

该研究评估了到 2060 年气候变化(包括极端事件)对希腊地区农作物种植和畜牧业生产率的直接影响,以及对农业食品和其他行业的广泛社会经济影响。不同的方法(即农艺学模型、统计回归模型以及将热应力与牲畜产量联系起来的方程)被结合起来,以估算气候参数平均值的变化对生产力的影响,以及随后这种长期气候变化的直接经济影响。记录的极端事件造成的损失与每个事件和作物的气候阈值相结合,估算出这些极端事件的直接经济影响。然后通过投入产出分析估算出更广泛的社会经济影响。在未来极端事件的平均水平下,气候变化对希腊农业造成的直接经济损失总额将非常可观,从每年 4.37 亿欧元到每年 10 亿欧元不等。如果考虑到对使用农产品作为投入品的其他行业(如食品和饮料、酒店和餐馆)的间接影响,这些损失大约会翻一番,而在极端事件影响达到十倍的情况下,损失还会进一步扩大。在全国范围内,国内生产总值和就业损失不大,但在农业贡献率较高的地区,损失则十分严重。
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Climate Change Risks for the Mediterranean Agri-Food Sector: The Case of Greece
The study assesses the direct effects of climate change by 2060, including extreme events, on the productivity of regional crop farming and livestock in Greece, and the broader socio-economic effects on the agri-food and other sectors. Different approaches (i.e., agronomic models, statistical regression models, and equations linking thermal stress to livestock output) were combined to estimate the effects on productivity from changes in the average values of climatic parameters, and subsequently the direct economic effects from this long-term climate change. Recorded damages from extreme events together with climatic thresholds per event and crop were combined to estimate the direct economic effects of these extremes. The broader socio-economic effects were then estimated through input–output analysis. Under average levels of future extreme events, the total direct economic losses for Greek agriculture due to climate change will be significant, from EUR 437 million/year to EUR 1 billion/year. These losses approximately double when indirect effects on other sectors using agricultural products as inputs (e.g., food and beverage, hotels, and restaurants) are considered, and escalate further under a tenfold impact of extreme events. Losses in the GDP and employment are moderate at the national level, but significant in regions where the contribution of agriculture is high.
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