Modeling the economic value of cardiometabolic virtual-first care programs.

Objectives: This study simulated the potential multiyear health and economic benefits of participation in 4 cardiometabolic virtual-first care (V1C) programs: prevention, hypertension, diabetes, and diabetes plus hypertension.

Study design: Using nationally available data and existing clinical and demographic information from members participating in cardiometabolic V1C programs, a microsimulation approach was used to estimate potential reduction in onset of disease sequelae and associated gross savings (ie, excluding the cost of V1C programs) in health care costs.

Methods: Members of each program were propensity matched to similar records in the combined 2012-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey files based on age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, and diagnosis status of diabetes and/or hypertension. V1C program-attributed changes in clinical outcomes combined with baseline biometric levels and other risk factors were used as inputs to model disease onset and related gross health care costs.

Results: Across the V1C programs, sustained improvements in weight loss, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure levels were estimated to reduce incidence of modeled disease sequelae by 2% to 10% over the 5 years following enrollment. As a result of sustained improvement in biometrics and reduced disease onset, the estimated gross savings in medical expenditures across the programs would be $892 to $1342 after 1 year, and cumulative estimated gross medical savings would be $2963 to $4346 after 3 years and $5221 to $7756 after 5 years. In addition, high program engagement was associated with greater health and economic benefits.

Conclusions: V1C programs for prevention and management of cardiometabolic chronic conditions have potential long-term health and financial implications.