Framework for developing cost-effectiveness analysis threshold: the case of Egypt.

Background: Cost-effectiveness analyses rarely offer useful insights to policy decisions unless their results are compared against a benchmark threshold. The cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) represents the maximum acceptable monetary value for achieving a unit of health gain. This study aimed to identify CET values on a global scale, provide an overview of using multiple CETs, and propose a country-specific CET framework specifically tailored for Egypt. The proposed framework aims to consider the globally identified CETs, analyze global trends, and consider the local structure of Egypt's healthcare system.

Methods: We conducted a literature review to identify CET values, with a particular focus on understanding the basis of differentiation when multiple thresholds are present. CETs of different countries were reviewed from secondary sources. Additionally, we assembled an expert panel to develop a national CET framework in Egypt and propose an initial design. This was followed by a multistakeholder workshop, bringing together representatives of different governmental bodies to vote on the threshold value and finalize the recommended framework.

Results: The average CET, expressed as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita across all countries, was 135%, with a range of 21 to 300%. Interestingly, while the absolute value of CET increased with a country's income level, the average CET/GDP per capita showed an inverse relationship. Some countries applied multiple thresholds based on disease severity or rarity. In the case of Egypt, the consensus workshop recommended a threshold ranging from one to three times the GDP per capita, taking into account the incremental relative quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gain. For orphan medicines, a CET multiplier between 1.5 and 3.0, based on the disease rarity, was recommended. A two-times multiplier was proposed for the private reimbursement threshold compared to the public threshold.

Conclusion: The CET values in most countries appear to be closely related to the GDP per capita. Higher-income countries tend to use a lower threshold as a percentage of their GDP per capita, contrasted with lower-income countries. In Egypt, experts opted for a multiple CET framework to assess the value of health technologies in terms of reimbursement and pricing.