Wind erosion changes from ecological restoration and climatic drivers on the Tibetan plateau

Wind erosion increases risks to soil productivity and food security, which have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being. However, the spatial patterns of how ecological restoration and climate change affect wind erosion remain poorly understood. Here, we combined scenario analysis with wind erosion assessment to evaluate the spatial associations of wind erosion with ecological restoration and climatic factors on the Tibetan Plateau. A structural equation model (SEM) was developed to determine the major driver of wind erosion. We identified an overall decrease of wind erosion modulus during 2001–2018, followed by increases of 7.2–19.4% under different climate change scenarios in 2030. Nearly two-thirds of the study area was characterized by wind erosion primarily driven by climate change, while ecological restoration accounted for the wind erosion in almost two-fifths of the study area. The SEM revealed a dominating role played by wind speed in affecting wind erosion directly and indirectly by modulating soil and vegetation conditions. Our study highlights the importance of embracing the spatial variations in the impacts of ecological restoration and climatic factors into the systematic planning of soil conservation and management. Results of this study could inform response strategies aiming to prevent and control wind erosion by identifying the location and extent of affected ecosystem services in the context of climate change.