Indirect Effects of Neighbourhood Socioeconomic Status on Preterm Birth Risk in an Argentine Population.

Background: Preterm birth (PTB) is the main condition related to perinatal morbimortality worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the indirect effects of neighbourhood socioeconomic status (NSES) on the risk of spontaneous PTB.

Methods: We carried out a retrospective case-control study including sociodemographic and obstetric data of multigravid women who gave birth at a maternity hospital in Tucumán, Argentina, between 2005 and 2010: 949 women without previous PTB nor pregnancy loss who delivered at term and 552 who had spontaneous PTB. NSES was estimated from the Unsatisfied Basic Needs index of census data. Variables selected through penalised regressions were used to create a data-driven Bayesian network; then, pathways were identified and mediation analyses performed.

Results: Maternal age less than 20 years mediated part of the protective effect of high NSES on spontaneous PTB [natural indirect effect (NIE) -0.0125, 95% confidence interval (CI) (-0.0208, -0.0041)] and on few prenatal visits (< 5) [NIE - 0.0095, 95% CI (-0.0166, -0.0025)]. These pathways showed greater sensitivity to unobserved confounders that affect the variables mediator-outcome in the same direction, and exposure-mediator in the opposite direction. They did not show sensitivity to observed potential confounders, nor to the parameterization used to define NSES. Meanwhile, urinary tract infections showed a trend in mediating the effect of low NSES on spontaneous PTB [NIE 0.0044, 95% CI (-0.0006, 0.0093), P 0.0834].

Conclusions: High NSES has protective indirect effects on spontaneous PTB risk, mainly associated with a lower frequency of teenage pregnancy.