On the prediction of the turbulent flow behind cylinder arrays via Echo State Networks

This study aims at the prediction of the turbulent flow behind cylinder arrays by the application of Echo State Networks (ESN). Three different arrangements of arrays of seven cylinders are chosen for the current study. These represent different flow regimes: single bluff body flow, transient flow, and co-shedding flow. This allows the investigation of turbulent flows that fundamentally originate from wake flows yet exhibit highly diverse dynamics. The data is reduced by Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) which is optimal in terms of kinetic energy. The Time Coefficients of the POD Modes (TCPM) are predicted by the ESN. The network architecture is optimized with respect to its three main hyperparameters, Input Scaling (INS), Spectral Radius (SR), and Leaking Rate (LR), in order to produce the best predictions in terms of Weighted Prediction Score (WPS), a metric leveling statistic and deterministic prediction. In general, the ESN is capable of imitating the complex dynamics of turbulent flows even for longer periods of several vortex shedding cycles. Furthermore, the mutual interdependencies of the TCPM are well preserved. However, optimal hyperparameters depend strongly on the flow characteristics. Generally, as flow dynamics become faster and more intermittent, larger LR and INS values result in better predictions, whereas less clear trends for SR are observable.