分析和优化全球恐怖主义指数指标

V. I. Evdokimov, K. Chernov
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The risk of death (injury) among the world’s population was calculated based on the Global Terrorism Database indicators for terrorism biomedical consequences registered from 2011 to 2020. Risks were calculated per 1 million people (10–6). Among the world’s population, the individual risk of death from a terrorist attack was 2.55 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year), while the injury risk was 3.63 • 10–6 injuries/(person • year). Qualitative risk indicators were also calculated as optimal, acceptable, and elevated.Results and analysis. From 2010 to 2022, the annual average GTI indicator showed that 4 countries had a very high terrorism level (average index in Iraq – 9.32, Afghanistan – 9.03, Pakistan – 8.42, Nigeria – 8.11); 8 countries were classified as high risk, 30 countries – as average risk (including Russia – 5.57), 25 countries – as low risk, 84 countries – as very low risk, and 12 countries – as zero cases of terrorism. The GTI correlated well with the number of deaths as a most crucial indicator. At the same time, countries with a large population showed inconsistencies between GTI and terrorism risk indicators. For example, according to 2011–2020 data, China’s GTI level (5.09) was classified as average level of terrorism, with the risk of dying 0.11 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year) and the risk of injury 0.56 • 10–6 injuries/(person • year), which was 15.5 and 4.3 times below the optimal global risk, respectively. Notably, Afghanistan’s GTI level (9.15) was classified as very high risk, with the death risk 93.53 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year) and injury risk 128.49 • 10–6 injuries/(person •year), which was 27.5 and 26.6 times above the elevated global risk, respectively.Conclusion. Although apparently impossible to eradicate completely across the world, terrorism can be drawn to a minimum. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

相关性。恐怖主义严重扰乱了各地区(国家)人民的生活。本研究旨在分析 2010 年至 2022 年各国报告的全球恐怖主义指数(GTI),并提出基于风险度量和风险指标的 GTI 优化技术。GTI 是研究恐怖主义对 163 个国家(占世界人口的 99.7%)影响的综合方法。数据来自 2011 年至 2023 年的 GTI 年度报告,由经济与和平研究所及其创始人 Steve Killelea(一位技术企业家)发布。采用准对数结构将基线数据归一化为 10 分的 GTI 标度(10 为最高分)。世界人口的死亡(受伤)风险是根据全球恐怖主义数据库 2011 年至 2020 年登记的恐怖主义生物医学后果指标计算得出的。风险按每 100 万人计算(10-6)。在世界人口中,个人死于恐怖袭击的风险为 2.55 - 10-6 死亡/(人-年),而受伤风险为 3.63 - 10-6 受伤/(人-年)。定性风险指标也被计算为最佳、可接受和较高。从 2010 年到 2022 年,年平均 GTI 指标显示,4 个国家的恐怖主义水平非常高(伊拉克的平均指数为 9.32,阿富汗为 9.03,巴基斯坦为 8.42,尼日利亚为 8.11);8 个国家被归类为高风险国家,30 个国家被归类为一般风险国家(包括俄罗斯--5.57),25 个国家被归类为低风险国家,84 个国家被归类为极低风险国家,12 个国家被归类为零恐怖主义案件国家。全球恐怖主义指数与作为最关键指标的死亡人数密切相关。与此同时,人口众多的国家在全球恐怖主义指数和恐怖主义风险指标之间存在不一致。例如,根据 2011-2020 年的数据,中国的 GTI 水平(5.09)被归为恐怖主义平均水平,死亡风险为 0.11 - 10-6 死亡/(人-年),受伤风险为 0.56 - 10-6 受伤/(人-年),分别比全球最佳风险低 15.5 倍和 4.3 倍。值得注意的是,阿富汗的 GTI 水平(9.15)被归类为极高风险,死亡风险为 93.53 - 10-6 死亡/(人-年),受伤风险为 128.49 - 10-6 受伤/(人-年),分别是全球高风险的 27.5 倍和 26.6 倍。尽管要在全球范围内彻底根除恐怖主义显然是不可能的,但可以将其控制在最低限度。全球恐怖主义指数揭示了潜在的威胁,可以对各个地区(国家)的恐怖主义活动进行比较,从而采取必要的政治或组织反恐措施。在进行大规模研究之后,应将死伤风险纳入全球恐怖主义指数,以加强对各个国家(地区)恐怖主义威胁的公正评估。
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Analysis and optimization of global terrorism index indicators
Relevance. Terrorism has a significantly disrupts life of the population across regions (countries). In recent years, armed conflicts have increased in number, and global terrorist activity has intensified.The objective is to analyze the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) reported across countries from 2010 to 2022 and suggest GTI optimization techniques based on risk metrics and risk indicators.Methods. The GTI is a comprehensive method to study the impact of terrorism in 163 countries, comprising 99.7 % of the world’s population. Data was obtained from annual 2011 to 2023 GTI reports, published by the Institute for Economics & Peace and its founder Steve Killelea, a technology entrepreneur. Quasi-logarithmic structures were used to normalize the baseline data to a 10-point GTI scale (where 10 is the maximum score). The risk of death (injury) among the world’s population was calculated based on the Global Terrorism Database indicators for terrorism biomedical consequences registered from 2011 to 2020. Risks were calculated per 1 million people (10–6). Among the world’s population, the individual risk of death from a terrorist attack was 2.55 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year), while the injury risk was 3.63 • 10–6 injuries/(person • year). Qualitative risk indicators were also calculated as optimal, acceptable, and elevated.Results and analysis. From 2010 to 2022, the annual average GTI indicator showed that 4 countries had a very high terrorism level (average index in Iraq – 9.32, Afghanistan – 9.03, Pakistan – 8.42, Nigeria – 8.11); 8 countries were classified as high risk, 30 countries – as average risk (including Russia – 5.57), 25 countries – as low risk, 84 countries – as very low risk, and 12 countries – as zero cases of terrorism. The GTI correlated well with the number of deaths as a most crucial indicator. At the same time, countries with a large population showed inconsistencies between GTI and terrorism risk indicators. For example, according to 2011–2020 data, China’s GTI level (5.09) was classified as average level of terrorism, with the risk of dying 0.11 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year) and the risk of injury 0.56 • 10–6 injuries/(person • year), which was 15.5 and 4.3 times below the optimal global risk, respectively. Notably, Afghanistan’s GTI level (9.15) was classified as very high risk, with the death risk 93.53 • 10–6 deaths/(person • year) and injury risk 128.49 • 10–6 injuries/(person •year), which was 27.5 and 26.6 times above the elevated global risk, respectively.Conclusion. Although apparently impossible to eradicate completely across the world, terrorism can be drawn to a minimum. The Global Terrorism Index reveals potential threats and allows to compare terrorist activity across individual territories (countries) in order to undertake the necessary political or organizational counter-terrorism measures. Following large-scale studies, risks of death and injury should be incorporated in the Global Terrorism Index enhance unbiased terrorism threat assessment for individual countries (territories).
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