Characteristics of residents' carbon emission and driving factors for carbon peaking: A case study in Wuhan, China

Residential carbon reduction is crucial for China to reach its carbon peak target by 2030. This study focuses on Wuhan and examines the structural characteristics of residential energy consumption and carbon emission using survey data. The analysis takes into account scenarios that consider 2030 carbon peaking constraint. The findings reveal that urban residents exhibit higher electrification compared to rural residents, with electricity consumption being the largest contributor to carbon emission. Private cars constitute the primary source of energy consumption and carbon emissions in transportation. Under the current “Wuhan 14th Five-Year Plan”, it is unlikely that direct carbon emission from residents will peak by 2030. To advance the peak of residential direct carbon emission, increasing energy-saving building retrofits and improving household energy efficiency are necessary, which can reduce CO₂ by 1.19 Mt. Controlling private car usage, promoting clean energy vehicles, and enhancing vehicle energy efficiency also have the carbon reduction potential with 2.65 Mt. Technological advancements leading to improvements in energy intensity and carbon intensity can help suppress overall carbon emission despite population growth and economic factors contributing to increased CO₂ levels. In terms of indirect carbon emission, urban residents exhibit significantly higher consumption levels compared to rural residents but have similar consumption patterns. Housing condition shows the highest intensity of indirect energy consumption (144.9 gce·CNY⁻¹) and carbon emission (368.9 g CO₂·CNY⁻¹). COVID-19 may have a promotion effect on direct energy consumption, and a limited impact on indirect energy consumption.