Relationship between Change in Physical Activity and Risk of Metabolic Syndrome: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Background: This study investigates the relationship between changes in physical activity levels and risk of metabolic syndrome.

Methods: This study examined 1,686 adults aged 40 to 69 years from a community-based cohort study with complete 1st to 4th follow-up data between 2011 and 2020. Changes in physical activity were evaluated through baseline and follow-up surveys using physical activity questionnaires. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed according to the International Diabetes Federation criteria. A survival analysis was conducted using a multivariate extended Cox regression model with a significance level set at P<0.05.

Results: Participants were divided into groups according to physical activity levels. The newly inactive group (vigorous physical activity ≤150 minutes at first follow-up) had a 36% increase in the hazard ratio (HR) for metabolic syndrome compared with the consistently inactive group (≤150 minutes at both baseline and first follow-up) (HR, 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 1.79). The newly active group (walking ≤420 minutes per week at baseline and >420 minutes per week at first follow-up) had a 25% decrease in the HR for metabolic syndrome compared with the consistently inactive group (walking ≤420 minutes per week at both baseline and first follow-up) (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.98).

Conclusion: Changes in physical activity levels are associated with risk of metabolic syndrome. These results provide important insights for future investigations into the link between physical activity changes and disease occurrence.