The Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to Hypertension in Nigeria: A Modelling Study Using Summary-Level Data.

Background: Globally, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality and disability, with hypertension being the single most important modifiable risk factor. Hypertension is responsible for about 18% of global deaths from CVD, of which African regions are disproportionately affected, especially sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed the burden of major CVD subtypes attributable to hypertension in Nigeria.

Methods: The population attributable fractions (PAF) for myocardial infarction, all strokes, ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke attributable to hypertension in Nigeria were calculated using published results from the INTERHEART and INTERSTROKE studies and prevalence estimates of hypertension in Nigeria. PAF estimates were obtained for age, sex, and geopolitical zones.

Results: Overall, hypertension contributed to 13.2% of all myocardial infarctions and 24.6% of all strokes, including 21.6% of all ischaemic strokes and 33.1% of all intracerebral haemorrhagic strokes. Among men aged ≤55 years, the PAF for myocardial infarction ranged from 11.7% (North-West) to 14.6% (South-East), while in older men, it spanned 9.2% (North-West) to 11.9% (South-East). Among women aged ≤65 years, PAF varied from 18.6% (South-South) to 20.8% (South-East and North-Central), and among women aged >65 years, it ranged from 10.4% (South-South) to 12.7% (South-East).

Conclusion: Hypertension is a key contributor to the burden of CVD in Nigeria. Understanding the burden of hypertension in the Nigerian population overall and key subgroups is crucial to developing and implementing contextualised health policies to reduce the burden of CVD. Public health interventions and policies centred on hypertension will play a critical role in potentially alleviating the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Nigeria.