用贝叶斯方法和可靠性理论反向分析三维滑坡的抗剪强度参数

IF 3 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics Pub Date : 2024-06-08 DOI:10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103639
Shi Zuo , Bin Wei , Lianheng Zhao , Qiujing Pan , Zhibin Lei , Shilin Luo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了在考虑岩土参数的可变性和不确定性的同时,建立精确的滑动面抗剪强度参数确定模型,本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯理论的参数可靠性回溯分析方法和一种三维边坡稳定性分析方法。首先,基于贝叶斯理论,根据现场试验信息更新抗剪强度参数的先验信息。然后,结合可靠性理论,研究了不同的二维和三维滑动面形状对参数回溯分析的影响。结果表明,引入试验数据更新基于贝叶斯理论掌握的参数信息后,参数的不确定性随试验数据量的增加而减小,准确考虑滑动面的形状和三维效应对提高参数确定和边坡稳定性分析的精度具有重要意义。
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Back analysis of the shear strength parameters of 3D landslides with Bayesian approach and reliability theory

To establish an accurate model for determining the shear strength parameters of sliding surfaces while considering the variability and uncertainty of geotechnical parameters, a reliability back analysis method for parameters based on Bayesian theory and a three-dimensional slope stability analysis method are proposed in this paper. First, the prior information of shear strength parameters is updated according to the field test information based on Bayesian theory. Then, combined with the reliability theory, the influences of different two-dimensional and three-dimensional sliding surface shapes on the parameters back analysis are studied. The results show that the uncertainty of parameters decreases with the increase in the amount of test data after introducing the test data to update the mastered parameter information based on Bayesian theory, and it is of great significance to consider the shape and three-dimensional effect of the sliding surface accurately to improve the accuracy of parameter determination and slope stability analysis.

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来源期刊
Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics
Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 工程技术-工程:机械
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
15.40%
发文量
98
审稿时长
13.5 months
期刊介绍: This journal provides a forum for scholarly work dealing primarily with probabilistic and statistical approaches to contemporary solid/structural and fluid mechanics problems encountered in diverse technical disciplines such as aerospace, civil, marine, mechanical, and nuclear engineering. The journal aims to maintain a healthy balance between general solution techniques and problem-specific results, encouraging a fruitful exchange of ideas among disparate engineering specialities.
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