农民工工作经历对农民采用农业新技术意愿的影响:来自中国的启示

Qingjun Zhao, Minjie Yu, Rongrong Shi, Rengui Gong
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摘要

采用农业新技术是实现农业可持续发展的关键因素之一。随着中国经济的快速发展和城乡差距的拉大,农民外出务工已成为一种常态。这一现象不仅改变了农民的生活方式,还可能影响他们对农业新技术的态度和采用行为。然而,该领域的现有研究尚不充分。本文以2018年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS2018)243个县的8391个样本数据为基础,采用线性概率模型(LPM)、两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)、条件混合过程(CMP)方法和遗漏变量检验,估计农民外出务工经历对农民农业新技术采用意愿的总体影响、异质性效应和作用机制。同时,从性别、年龄、受教育程度等角度探讨了农民工经历与农业新技术采用意愿之间的异质性关系。最后,利用卡尔森-霍尔姆-布林(Karlson-Holm-Breen,KHB)模型分析了外出务工经历对农民采用农业新技术意愿的影响机制。外出务工经历显著增强了农民采用农业新技术的意愿,有外出务工经历的农民采用农业新技术的意愿概率比没有外出务工经历的农民高出26.65%。同时,与女性农民、1980 年以前出生的农民和小学及以下教育程度的农民相比,这种增强效应在男性农民、1980 年以后出生的农民和小学以上教育程度的农民中更为明显。根据实证结果,本文建议积极引导有外出务工经历的农民采用农业新技术,鼓励有返乡意向的农民工到农村重新务农,以进一步促进农业新技术的采用。
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The impact of migrant work experience on farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technology: insights from China
The adoption of new agricultural technologies is one of the key factors for achieving sustainable agricultural development. With the rapid development of China’s economy and the widening gap between urban and rural areas, it has become the norm for farmers to seek employment outside their home villages. This phenomenon not only changes the lifestyle of farmers but may also affect their attitudes toward and adoption behavior of new agricultural technologies. However, existing research in this field is not yet sufficient. This paper aims to assess the overall impact, heterogeneous effects, and mechanisms of action of migrant work experience on farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies.Based on the 8,391 sample data from 243 counties in the 2018 China Labor Force Dynamic Survey (CLDS2018), this paper uses the Linear Probability Model (LPM), Two Stage Least Square (2SLS), Conditional Mixed Process (CMP) methods, and omitted variable test to estimate the impact of migrant work experience on farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies. Simultaneously, it explored the heterogeneity in the relationship between migrant work experience and the willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies from the perspectives of gender, age, and educational level. Lastly, the Karlson-Holm-Breen (KHB) model was utilized to analyze the mechanisms through which migrant work experience affects farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies.Migrant work experience significantly enhances farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies, with the probability of willingness among farmers with migrant work experience being 26.65% higher than that of farmers without such experience. At the same time, compared to female farmers, those born before 1980, and those with primary education or less, this enhancing effect is more pronounced among male farmers, those born after 1980, and those with more than a primary education. Furthermore, it was found that migrant work experience not only directly enhances farmers’ willingness to adopt new agricultural technologies but also indirectly promotes it by increasing capital accumulation, enhancing risk awareness, expanding social networks, and strengthening agricultural cognition, with risk awareness and agricultural cognition playing a larger indirect role.Based on the empirical results, this paper suggests actively guiding farmers with migrant work experience to adopt new agricultural technologies, and encouraging return migrant labor with the intention of resettling in rural areas to engage in agriculture again, to further promote the adoption of new agricultural technologies.
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