持续的高利率对农业生产者意味着什么?

Jay Parsons, John Hewlett, Jeff Tranel
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摘要

随着 2024 年的到来,农业部门面临着借贷成本居高不下的巨大经济压力。在农作物领域,由于农作物价格下降和投入成本上升导致利润空间收窄,现金缓冲空间变小,需要保留营运资本,这导致 2024 年第一季度农场经营贷款活动增加(堪萨斯城联储)。过去几年,农场机械设备成本也大幅上涨。因此,用于购买此类设备的贷款数额较大,而较高的利率只会使购买决策更加复杂。农民可能会发现自己优先考虑设备方面的基本投资,推迟或缩减机械升级和扩建计划。此外,在养牛业,过去三年干旱造成的牛群清理导致牛价高涨,再加上牧场条件的恢复和重建肉牛群的愿望。同样,与农作物生产商的机械设备情况一样,高价格加上高融资率可能会延长许多生产商的重建任务。
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What Do Ongoing High Interest Rates Mean for Ag Producers?
As we progress through 2024, the agricultural sector faces significant economic pressures from persistently high borrowing costs. In the crop sector, smaller cash buffers and the need to preserve working capital due to tightening profit margins resulting from lower crop prices and higher input costs contributed to an increase in farm operating loan activity in the first quarter of 2024 (Kansas City Federal Reserve). Farm machinery and equipment costs also rose considerably in the last few years. As a result, loans to purchase such equipment are larger and the higher interest rates only complicate the purchase decisions even further. Farmers may find themselves prioritizing essential investments in equipment and postponing or scaling back on machinery upgrade and expansion plans. Furthermore, in the cattle industry, herd liquidation of the last three years due to drought conditions has resulted in high cattle prices coupled with recovery in pasture conditions and a desire to rebuild the beef cow herd. Likewise, as with the machinery and equipment situation for crop producers, a high price tag coupled with high financing rates will likely prolong the rebuilding task for many producers.
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