Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Banks’ Profitability: The Role of Size in an Emerging Economy

This work investigates the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Brazilian banks’ profitability, and if the impact was stronger for smaller banks. Brazil was highly affected by COVID-19 crisis, has a highly concentrated banking sector, and is well known for the high technology of its financial market. We collected information from 42 banks on the quarterly financial statements available in Brazilian Central Banks during the period between January/2016 and March/2021. We ran Arellano–Bond generalized method of moments dynamic panel regression and our results confirm that the COVID-19 crisis negatively impacted the profitability of the Brazilian banks and that large banks were the most affected. Brazilian government adopted anti-crisis measures that relaxed regulations in order to decrease credit spreads. This may have alleviated the impact of the crises on small banks and also encouraged the appearance of fintech companies, which competed directly with banks.